Sports 4 Dorks

All of us like pitchers who can rack up strikeouts. There is no argument between statheads and the scouting community over the value of missing bats. In a nutshell, Ks are the out of choice. The more, the merrier.

We also know that pitch counts are important. The fewer, the better. As such, it seems logical that combining high strikeout and low pitch totals is a recipe for success. In February 2006, I stated, “The best way to measure such effectiveness is via K/100 pitches.” The formula is (strikeouts divided by total pitches) x 100.

In addition, strikeouts per pitch has a stronger correlation to runs allowed than strikeouts per inning or strikeouts per batter faced. The technical aspects of these measurements were explained in Strikeout Proficiency (Part Two).

Let’s take a look at the K/100P rankings as compared to K/9 IP. (For context, among those who qualified for the ERA title, the average starter threw approximately 100 pitches and completed 6 1/3 innings. The average number of K/100 pitches was 4.66.)

Top 10 K/100 Pitches

Name		IP	SO      Pitches	K/100P	K/9    K/9 Rk
Erik Bedard	182.0	221	2946	7.50	10.93	1
Johan Santana	219.0	235	3345	7.03	9.66	4
Jake Peavy	223.3	240	3610	6.65	9.67	3
A.J. Burnett	165.7	176	2649	6.64	9.56	5
Scott Kazmir	206.7	239	3609	6.62	10.41	2
John Smoltz	205.7	197	3062	6.43	8.62	12
Cole Hamels	183.3	177	2791	6.34	8.69	10
Josh Beckett	200.7	194	3100	6.26	8.70	9
Javier Vazquez	216.7	213	3465	6.15	8.85	6
Aaron Harang	231.6	218	3591	6.07	8.47	14

Erik Bedard was #1 in both K/100P and K/9. With respect to strikeouts, the lefthander had a fantastic season. He blew away the field, averaging about 0.50 higher than the closest pursuer in both measurements. Bedard, who missed the final month with a strained right oblique, was a leading candidate for the AL Cy Young Award as late as August. Signed through 2009, the 28-year-old is one of the most valuable pitching properties in baseball.

Scott Kazmir ranks second in K/9 but only fifth in K/100P. John Smoltz jumps from 12th in K/9 to sixth in K/100P. Smoltz proved his proficiency by ranking among the leaders in all strikeout measurements while also placing among the leaders in throwing the fewest pitches per plate appearance (3.60) and inning (14.9). Smoltzie, in fact, was the only pitcher who struck out at least eight batters per nine innings and ranked among the top half in fewest P/PA – and, get this, he was 10th in the latter category.

Cole Hamels, who threw the second fewest pitches per plate appearance among those with eight or more Ks per nine, goes from 10th in K/9 to seventh in K/100P. Aaron Harang, another strike thrower, also fares better in K/100P than K/9.

#11-20 K/100P

Name		IP	SO      Pitches	K/100P	K/9    K/9 Rk
Rich Hill		195.0	183	3070	5.96	8.45	15
C.C. Sabathia	241.0	209	3581	5.84	7.80	17
James Shields	215.0	184	3177	5.79	7.70	21
Chris Young	173.0	167	2884	5.79	8.69	11
Daisuke Matsuzaka	204.7	201	3480	5.78	8.84	8
Oliver Perez	177.0	174	3015	5.77	8.85	7
Ian Snell		208.0	177	3125	5.66	7.66	22
Brandon Webb	236.3	194	3437	5.64	7.39	26
John Maine	191.0	180	3270	5.50	8.48	13
Felix Hernandez	190.3	165	3005	5.49	7.80	18

James Shields leaps from 21st in K/9 to 13th in K/100P. The Tampa Bay righthander threw the sixth fewest pitches per inning (14.9), trailing only Brandon Webb, Fausto Carmona, Paul Byrd, Roy Halladay, and C.C. Sabathia. Shields looks like the real deal. He has good stuff (including one of the best changeups in the game) and possesses a lot of polish for a second-year pitcher. If Shields has a weakness, it’s in the number of home runs he has allowed thus far.

Oliver Perez and Diasuke Matsuzaka fall from seventh and eighth in K/9 to 16th and 15th, respectively, in K/100P. High pitch counts and walks are the downfall in both cases. Ian Snell is the sleeper in this group. He may be one of those undersized righthanders, but the facts are that Snell throws hard and has pretty good command of his fastball and slider.

#21-30 K/100P

Name		IP	SO      Pitches	K/100P	K/9    K/9 Rk
Justin Verlander	201.7	183	3354	5.46	8.17	16
Ted Lilly		207.0	174	3240	5.37	7.57	24
Dustin McGowan	169.7	144	2702	5.33	7.64	23
Jeremy Bonderman	174.3	145	2725	5.32	7.49	25
Dan Haren		222.7	192	3635	5.28	7.76	20
John Lackey	224.0	179	3396	5.27	7.19	31
Kelvim Escobar	195.7	160	3041	5.26	7.36	28
Wandy Rodriguez	182.7	158	3036	5.20	7.78	19
Derek Lowe	199.3	147	3020	4.87	6.64	39
Matt Cain		200.0	163	3351	4.86	7.34	29

There are a number of good, young righthanders in the group above. Justin Verlander improved his strikeout rate markedly in 2007, lifting his K/100P from 4.17 to 5.46 and his K/9 from 6.00 to 8.17. With one of the best fastballs in baseball, Verlander has greatness written all over him. There’s a lot to like about Dustin McGowan, Jeremy Bonderman, Dan Haren, John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, and Matt Cain, too. The latter pitched in extreme tough luck last season (as his 7-16 record and 3.65 ERA would indicate), ranking second-to-last in run support with 3.51 RS/9.

Derek Lowe is an interesting example of a pitcher who looks much better when viewed through the prism of K/100P (29th in the majors) rather than K/9 (39th). His strikeout rate was actually the highest its been since he became a full-time starter in 2002. The 34-year-old veteran sinkerballer throws strikes and induces more groundballs than any other starting pitcher.

#31-40 K/100P

Name		IP	SO      Pitches	K/100P	K/9    K/9 Rk
Boof Bonser	173.0	136	2823	4.82	7.08	32
Carlos Zambrano	216.3	177	3692	4.79	7.36	27
Jeff Francis	215.3	165	3485	4.73	6.90	34
Chad Gaudin	199.3	154	3293	4.68	6.95	33
Roy Oswalt	212.0	154	3303	4.66	6.54	40
Daniel Cabrera	204.3	166	3565	4.66	7.31	30
Jeremy Guthrie	175.3	123	2677	4.59	6.31	46
Bronson Arroyo	210.7	156	3432	4.55	6.66	38
David Bush	186.3	134	2979	4.50	6.47	42
Matt Belisle	177.7	125	2793	4.48	6.33	45

Like many others who walk more than their fair share, Carlos Zambrano’s K/100P ranking slips a bit as compared to his K/9. On the other hand, strike throwers Jeremy Guthrie and Matt Belisle moved up a number of spots.

#41-50 K/100P

Name		IP	SO      Pitches	K/100P	K/9    K/9 Rk
Fausto Carmona	215.0	137	3137	4.37	5.73	55
Gil Meche		216.0	156	3579	4.36	6.50	41
Scott Olsen	176.7	133	3060	4.35	6.78	35
Kip Wells		162.7	122	2812	4.34	6.75	36
Doug Davis	192.7	144	3356	4.29	6.73	37
Adam Wainwright	202.0	136	3175	4.28	6.06	48
Jamie Moyer	199.3	133	3148	4.22	6.01	51
Brad Penny	208.0	135	3227	4.18	5.84	54
Dontrelle Willis	205.3	146	3491	4.18	6.40	44
Roy Halladay	225.3	139	3330	4.17	5.55	57

The above pitchers rank in the bottom half of all qualified starters in K/100P. The best performers, like Fausto Carmona, Brad Penny, and Roy Halladay, throw strikes and/or induce an inordinate number of groundballs. Pitchers can succeed with K/100P over 4.00. However, it becomes much more problematic when the rate drops below this threshold.

#51-60 K/100P

Name		IP	SO      Pitches	K/100P	K/9    K/9 Rk
Tim Hudson	224.3	132	3165	4.17	5.30	62
Kevin Millwood	172.7	123	2953	4.17	6.41	43
Andy Pettitte	215.3	141	3395	4.15	5.89	53
Nate Robertson	177.7	119	2890	4.12	6.03	49
Miguel Batista	193.0	133	3259	4.08	6.20	47
Tom Gorzelanny	201.7	135	3312	4.08	6.02	50
Joe Blanton	230.0	140	3481	4.02	5.48	58
Kyle Lohse	192.7	122	3043	4.01	5.70	56
Paul Maholm	177.7	105	2644	3.97	5.32	60
Greg Maddux	198.0	104	2703	3.85	4.73	70

Tim Hudson lowered his walk rate from 2006 (3.26 BB/9) to 2007 (2.13 BB/9) by more than a third, and it did wonders to his ERA (plunging from 4.86 to 3.33). The 32-year-old righthander also increased his GB rate and decreased his HR rate to near career bests.

#61-70 K/100P

Name		IP	SO      Pitches	K/100P	K/9    K/9 Rk
Barry Zito	196.7	131	3411	3.84	5.99	52
Tim Wakefield	189.0	110	2881	3.82	5.24	63
Jose Contreras	189.0	113	3006	3.76	5.38	59
Mark Buehrle	201.0	115	3103	3.71	5.15	64
Chien-Ming Wang	199.3	104	2861	3.64	4.70	71
Jason Marquis	191.7	109	3029	3.60	5.12	65
Josh Fogg		165.7	94	2675	3.51	5.11	66
Jarrod Washburn	193.7	114	3271	3.49	5.30	61
Jeff Suppan	206.7	114	3328	3.43	4.96	68
Matt Morris	198.7	102	3037	3.36	4.62	72

An extreme groundballer like Chien-Ming Wang can operate effectively with such a low strikeout rate. He needs to throw strikes and keep the ball down in the zone. If he loses the ability to do one or the other, his value will drop accordingly.

#71-80 K/100P

Name		IP	SO      Pitches	K/100P	K/9    K/9 Rk
Matthew Chico	167.0	94	2829	3.32	5.07	67
Woody Williams	188.0	101	3148	3.21	4.84	69
Paul Byrd		192.3	88	2836	3.10	4.12	76
Braden Looper	175.0	87	2807	3.10	4.47	73
Jon Garland	208.3	98	3293	2.98	4.23	74
Brian Bannister	165.0	77	2603	2.96	4.20	75
Carlos Silva	202.0	89	3057	2.91	3.97	78
Livan Hernandez	204.3	90	3361	2.68	3.96	79
Tom Glavine	200.3	89	3341	2.66	4.00	77
Aaron Cook	166.0	61	2407	2.53	3.31	80

You can have any and all of these pitchers. In order to survive, much less thrive, without racking up strikeouts, pitchers need to limit the number of walks and keep the ball on the ground. Matt Chico ranks poorly in all three areas. The southpaw is young and could improve, but the odds are against him and his mid-80s fastball to succeed unless he exhibits pinpoint control in the future.

Good luck to the team that ends up signing Carlos Silva to at least a four-year contract for upwards of $12 million per season. You have been forewarned. Silva does a great job at limiting the number of bases on balls, but he is living on the edge. Livan Hernandez is another free agent who is likely to disappoint his new team. This guy is simply no good. He has outlived his usefulness as a MLB pitcher. To wit, Hernandez’s K/9 not only dropped by 1.37 last year to the lowest level of his 11-year career but wound up below 4.0 for the first time ever. At the same time, his BB/9 (3.48) was the highest since 1998, resulting in the lowest K/BB ratio (1.14) of his career. By the latter measurement, he was the worst qualified starting pitcher in the majors last year. Did I mention that Livan also had the second-highest HR/9 (1.50)? Woody Williams was the only pitcher who allowed more long balls, and he just happened to rank in the bottom ten in K/100P as well.

Many of these pitchers, including the newly acquired Jon Garland of the Los Angeles Angels, will find themselves in the Southwest Quadrant (below-average K and GB rates) when I unveil this series during the off-season. Take a look at the pitchers who inhabited this quadrant in 2006. There’s not a lot to get excited about other than Joe Blanton.

Strikeouts. Pitch totals. Putting strikeouts in the numerator and pitch totals in the denominator allows us to measure dominance and efficiency or what I have referred to it as “strikeout proficiency.” As a standalone stat, I believe it tells us more than K/9 or K/BF.